Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032020 200625 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.70    135.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     11.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     61.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.8  19.9  19.7  21.4  22.2  23.2  23.2  20.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  16.0  15.0  11.0   8.0   6.0   4.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.1 122.9 122.9 120.7 116.5 114.4 110.5 106.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0  57.0  46.0  43.0  14.0   6.0   0.0 -11.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  55.0  55.0  52.0  53.0  51.0  49.0  47.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.8  19.9  19.7  21.4  22.2  23.2  23.2  20.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        5.8%        3.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        1.5%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        1.3%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        0.4%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        6.9%        3.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        1.8%        1.1%
 55kt / 48h        1.3%        1.6%        1.4%
 70kt / 48h        1.3%        0.9%        1.1%
 65kt / 72h        2.6%        2.8%        2.7%