Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032020 200625 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.00    136.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     53.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.4  22.5  22.4  22.8  24.3  25.3  24.6  21.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  13.0   9.0   7.0   5.0   3.0   2.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        122.9 120.7 118.6 114.4 112.4 108.5 106.6 104.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    46.0  49.0  55.0  20.0  -4.0  -5.0  -9.0 -16.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  53.0  52.0  51.0  51.0  49.0  47.0  45.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  22.4  22.5  22.4  22.8  24.3  25.3  24.6  21.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        5.3%        3.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.3%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.3%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        6.1%        3.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.8%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        0.6%        1.2%        0.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.6%        0.8%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        1.4%        2.5%        2.0%