Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032020 200626 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.30    137.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     54.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.1  23.6  22.6  24.2  24.3  24.2  24.1  22.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0   8.0   6.0   4.0   2.0   1.0   2.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.7 111.5 107.4 103.5 101.6  99.8  99.8  99.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0  46.0  26.0  -2.0   5.0  -7.0 -15.0 -14.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  52.0  51.0  50.0  49.0  48.0  44.0  43.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  23.1  23.6  22.6  24.2  24.3  24.2  24.1  22.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        0.7%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        3.3%        2.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        0.9%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        0.7%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        0.2%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        3.8%        2.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.6%        0.6%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.6%        0.5%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.4%        1.3%        0.9%