Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032020 200626 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.80    138.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      8.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     65.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.9  26.0  27.0  23.8  24.2  20.4  16.5  13.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   3.0   2.0   1.0   2.0   3.0   8.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        112.4 110.5 106.6 104.8 103.0 103.0 103.0 101.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    15.0  33.0  42.0  12.0   1.0 -21.0 -19.0 -15.0  U  N  N  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  50.0  47.0  44.0  41.0  40.0  39.0  40.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  21.9  26.0  27.0  23.8  24.2  20.4  16.5  13.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.2%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        0.3%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        0.2%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        1.3%        1.1%        1.2%