Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032020 200626 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.40    138.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     63.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.4  31.1  27.4  25.3  22.9  19.5  16.8  14.5  N  U  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   2.0   1.0   1.0   2.0   3.0   6.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        106.6 104.8 101.2  99.4  99.4  99.4  97.7  96.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    28.0  36.0  16.0 -10.0 -24.0 -28.0 -18.0   3.0  U  N  U  U VU VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  48.0  45.0  41.0  40.0  39.0  40.0  39.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  29.4  31.1  27.4  25.3  22.9  19.5  16.8  14.5  N  U  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.2%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        0.2%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        0.8%        0.5%