Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032020 200627 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.40    140.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      2.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     51.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.6  23.5  20.9  16.8  17.3  15.7  15.9  17.1  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   1.0   2.0   4.0  11.0  17.0  13.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        104.8 103.0 103.0 103.0 101.2  99.4  97.7  96.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     6.0 -16.0 -22.0 -14.0 -16.0  -1.0  19.0  -8.0  U  U VU  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  42.0  40.0  39.0  39.0  38.0  39.0  41.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  24.6  23.5  20.9  16.8  17.3  15.7  15.9  17.1  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.9%        1.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        1.2%        1.2%        1.2%
 70kt / 48h        1.2%        0.4%        0.8%
 65kt / 72h        1.1%        1.2%        1.2%