Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032020 200627 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.30    140.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      2.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     31.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.5  18.1  16.4  16.8  15.6  15.6  16.6  16.8  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   0.0   1.0   5.0  13.0  16.0  10.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        104.8 104.8 104.8 104.8 103.0 101.2 101.2 101.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -18.0 -21.0  -8.0  -7.0   0.0  31.0   7.0  -6.0  U VU  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   42.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  39.0  40.0  41.0  43.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  21.5  18.1  16.4  16.8  15.6  15.6  16.6  16.8  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        1.3%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        3.1%        1.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        2.0%        2.0%        2.0%
 70kt / 48h        2.0%        0.5%        1.3%
 65kt / 72h        1.6%        1.5%        1.5%