Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032020 200628 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.20    141.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     31.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.7  19.0  18.2  18.8  19.7  18.2  18.2  18.2  N  N  F  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0  11.0  17.0  16.0  13.0   8.0   8.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        111.6 111.6 111.6 111.6 109.8 111.6 111.6 111.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -5.0   1.0   1.0  16.0  -8.0 -11.0 -11.0 -11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   39.0  39.0  38.0  38.0  39.0  42.0  42.0  42.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.7  19.0  18.2  18.8  19.7  18.2  18.2  18.2  N  N  F  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.0%        1.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        1.1%        1.1%        1.1%
 70kt / 48h        1.1%        0.4%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        2.3%        1.5%        1.9%