Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP042020 200630 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.50    112.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      7.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.0  20.2  23.9  27.8  27.8  30.6  34.1  33.4  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         75.5  72.0  70.9  69.8  68.8  67.7  65.7  64.7  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    12.0  10.0  18.0  18.0  13.0   5.0  25.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  58.0  55.0  51.0  52.0  47.0  43.0  42.0  N  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  21.0  20.2  23.9  27.8  27.8  30.6  34.1  33.4  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%