Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP042020 200630 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.60    112.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     70.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.0  23.4  27.3  26.2  28.8  31.5  30.2  27.9  F  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         76.7  75.5  74.3  73.2  72.0  69.8  66.7  63.7  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    12.0  15.0  14.0  15.0  23.0  13.0   3.0  18.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  56.0  52.0  53.0  49.0  44.0  44.0  45.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.0  23.4  27.3  26.2  28.8  31.5  30.2  27.9  F  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%