Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052020 200706 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.20     99.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     91.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     62.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.2  26.6  31.7  25.6  21.2  24.5  23.0  18.3  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  37.0  37.0  47.0  52.0  38.0  31.0  21.0  U  U  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    77.0  92.0  95.0 103.0 108.0 104.0 106.0 132.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  82.0  81.0  78.0  79.0  77.0  78.0  78.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  19.2  26.6  31.7  25.6  21.2  24.5  23.0  18.3  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.0%        5.7%        3.9%
 25kt / 24h       17.5%       37.7%       27.6%
 30kt / 24h        5.9%       20.4%       13.1%
 35kt / 24h        2.9%       20.4%       11.6%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%        7.2%        4.1%
 45kt / 36h        9.7%       48.4%       29.1%
 55kt / 36h        4.3%       26.7%       15.5%
 55kt / 48h       21.7%       31.6%       26.6%
 70kt / 48h        8.0%       14.1%       11.0%
 65kt / 72h       29.9%       48.0%       38.9%