Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052020 200707 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.90    100.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.2  26.4  25.1  21.0  23.4  21.0  18.4  13.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   42.0  50.0  52.0  37.0  33.0  22.0  14.0  14.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    88.0  92.0  88.0 117.0 125.0  92.0 144.0 149.0  F  F  F  F  F  F VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  80.0  77.0  78.0  78.0  78.0  78.0  78.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  25.2  26.4  25.1  21.0  23.4  21.0  18.4  13.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.0%        4.4%        4.2%
 25kt / 24h       20.0%       33.8%       26.9%
 30kt / 24h       10.8%       15.6%       13.2%
 35kt / 24h        5.9%       15.6%       10.8%
 40kt / 24h        2.1%        7.9%        5.0%
 45kt / 36h       16.7%       40.0%       28.4%
 55kt / 36h        8.6%       19.5%       14.0%
 55kt / 48h       24.5%       28.3%       26.4%
 70kt / 48h       13.9%       11.9%       12.9%
 65kt / 72h       24.5%       33.3%       28.9%