Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052020 200707 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.30    101.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.0  24.6  27.6  27.1  21.5  17.6  13.2  12.7  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   47.0  53.0  37.0  32.0  21.0  15.0  15.0  13.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    98.0  89.0 107.0 114.0  72.0  97.0 126.0 127.0  F  F  F  F  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  78.0  78.0  78.0  81.0  79.0  80.0  80.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  25.0  24.6  27.6  27.1  21.5  17.6  13.2  12.7  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.8%        1.8%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        6.7%       14.8%       10.8%
 30kt / 24h        3.3%        4.4%        3.8%
 35kt / 24h        1.4%        4.4%        2.9%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%        2.3%        1.8%
 45kt / 36h        8.7%       18.0%       13.4%
 55kt / 36h        3.8%        5.8%        4.8%
 55kt / 48h       18.0%       15.8%       16.9%
 70kt / 48h        8.5%        4.6%        6.6%
 65kt / 72h       20.8%       21.4%       21.1%