Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052020 200707 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.70    103.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     56.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     44.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.6  24.9  23.3  19.1  15.8  15.2  16.0  17.1  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   43.0  32.0  23.0  14.0  12.0  11.0   9.0   8.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    90.0 101.0  92.0 135.0 111.0 107.0 106.0  92.0  F  F  F VF  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  77.0  79.0  79.0  80.0  81.0  82.0  80.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  23.6  24.9  23.3  19.1  15.8  15.2  16.0  17.1  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.3%        4.4%        3.8%
 25kt / 24h       16.2%       31.6%       23.9%
 30kt / 24h        8.0%       16.0%       12.0%
 35kt / 24h        4.0%       16.0%       10.0%
 40kt / 24h        2.1%        7.3%        4.7%
 45kt / 36h       16.0%       36.7%       26.3%
 55kt / 36h        7.0%       16.9%       11.9%
 55kt / 48h       22.0%       27.2%       24.6%
 70kt / 48h        7.4%        8.2%        7.8%
 65kt / 72h        7.4%       15.3%       11.3%