Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052020 200708 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.50    104.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.7  24.5  20.0  14.4  14.7  17.3  21.7  20.6  N  N  N  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  19.0  11.0  10.0   8.0   7.0   7.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 115.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    81.0 102.0 142.0 139.0 119.0 106.0  73.0  73.0  N  F VF VF  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  78.0  78.0  80.0  80.0  82.0  79.0  80.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  25.7  24.5  20.0  14.4  14.7  17.3  21.7  20.6  N  N  N  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.3%        2.5%        2.4%
 25kt / 24h       12.6%       25.5%       19.1%
 30kt / 24h        6.4%       11.2%        8.8%
 35kt / 24h        3.2%       11.2%        7.2%
 40kt / 24h        3.2%        5.4%        4.3%
 45kt / 36h       15.0%       29.3%       22.1%
 55kt / 36h        6.1%       11.6%        8.9%
 55kt / 48h       15.5%       17.6%       16.5%
 70kt / 48h        5.4%        4.8%        5.1%
 65kt / 72h        3.2%        7.1%        5.2%