Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052020 200708 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.20    106.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     65.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     58.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.9  15.7  13.9  17.9  21.8  22.8  20.7  19.8  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  12.0  10.0   7.0   7.0   7.0   5.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 117.0 103.6  89.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   102.0 135.0 115.0  77.0  62.0  40.0  34.0  28.0  F VF  F  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  78.0  79.0  81.0  79.0  79.0  78.0  80.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  21.9  15.7  13.9  17.9  21.8  22.8  20.7  19.8  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.6%        5.5%        5.0%
 25kt / 24h       22.0%       40.5%       31.2%
 30kt / 24h       11.4%       26.4%       18.9%
 35kt / 24h        7.5%       26.4%       17.0%
 40kt / 24h        4.7%       12.4%        8.5%
 45kt / 36h       14.4%       33.0%       23.7%
 55kt / 36h        5.6%       14.9%       10.3%
 55kt / 48h       10.9%       14.3%       12.6%
 70kt / 48h        2.2%        4.0%        3.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.6%        4.6%        2.6%