Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052020 200709 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.10    108.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.7  16.3  19.3  19.6  14.2  13.9  16.4  14.7  F  F  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   5.0   6.0   4.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 102.3  91.5  67.7  46.7  32.8  30.0  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   137.0  80.0  67.0  42.0  13.0  34.0  27.0  53.0 VF  N  N  N  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  80.0  78.0  76.0  78.0  78.0  74.0  70.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.2%        8.4%        8.8%
 25kt / 24h       15.8%       28.9%       22.4%
 30kt / 24h       11.4%       22.5%       17.0%
 35kt / 24h        7.0%       22.5%       14.7%
 40kt / 24h        7.0%       22.5%       14.7%
 45kt / 36h        8.9%       15.1%       12.0%
 55kt / 36h        4.3%        5.9%        5.1%
 55kt / 48h        4.3%        3.5%        3.9%
 70kt / 48h        3.4%        3.1%        3.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%