Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052020 200709 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.50    109.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     30.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.1  21.8  20.2  19.0  14.4  12.3  14.4  11.1  F  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   6.0   5.0   4.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 107.0  95.7  85.5  58.6  39.8  33.7  29.1  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    84.0  55.0  46.0  44.0  21.0  26.0   7.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  76.0  74.0  74.0  77.0  73.0  70.0  67.0  F  F  N  N  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   1.0   0.0  -4.0   1.0  -8.0   0.0  -2.0  N  N  N  F  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.9%        5.9%        6.9%
 25kt / 24h        9.0%       18.9%       14.0%
 30kt / 24h        6.8%       12.2%        9.5%
 35kt / 24h        6.6%       12.2%        9.4%
 40kt / 24h        6.6%       12.2%        9.4%
 45kt / 36h        5.0%        9.7%        7.3%
 55kt / 36h        2.6%        3.4%        3.0%
 55kt / 48h        2.7%        1.7%        2.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%