Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072020 200720 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.70    128.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     77.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.5  15.4  16.3  16.4  15.4  18.8  21.0  25.5  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         63.8  57.8  54.1  50.8  50.0  51.6  52.4  52.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0  24.0   3.0  -3.0  -2.0 -25.0  -5.0  -7.0  N  U  U  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  59.0  59.0  57.0  51.0  43.0  38.0  32.0  N  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   3.0   5.0   9.0   8.0  16.0  16.0  18.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons