Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072020 200720 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.40    129.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.9  16.1  15.9  14.6  14.1  13.7  14.3  16.2  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         67.0  60.7  58.7  58.7  61.7  69.3  96.0 110.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    18.0  12.0  11.0  20.0  -7.0 -16.0  13.0 -23.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  59.0  59.0  59.0  56.0  52.0  55.0  58.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   7.0   6.0   4.0   7.0   7.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons