Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082020 200720 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.90    119.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     23.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.9  13.9  11.8  13.3  15.5  15.0  13.6  15.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  26.0  16.0  12.0  11.0  12.0  12.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 132.0 129.6 122.9  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    58.0  63.0  27.0  18.0  20.0  10.0   0.0   2.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  66.0  67.0  68.0  71.0  74.0  72.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   3.0   2.0   4.0   2.0   3.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.6%        3.8%        2.7%
 25kt / 24h        8.3%       30.1%       19.2%
 30kt / 24h        4.7%       15.8%       10.3%
 35kt / 24h        2.4%       15.8%        9.1%
 40kt / 24h        2.4%       15.8%        9.1%
 45kt / 36h        9.5%       39.8%       24.7%
 55kt / 36h        5.8%       19.3%       12.5%
 55kt / 48h       13.9%       23.3%       18.6%
 70kt / 48h        5.5%       16.6%       11.0%
 65kt / 72h        7.3%       25.5%       16.4%