Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082020 200720 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.50    119.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.6  12.6  13.9  16.5  14.2  15.9  17.1  16.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   28.0  20.0  12.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  15.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 132.0 127.3 116.5  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    62.0  29.0   0.0   2.0  -8.0  -1.0 -17.0 -18.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  67.0  69.0  68.0  72.0  72.0  71.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   4.0   5.0   6.0   0.0   0.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.8%        5.0%        3.4%
 25kt / 24h        9.8%       34.3%       22.0%
 30kt / 24h        4.9%       18.3%       11.6%
 35kt / 24h        2.0%       18.3%       10.2%
 40kt / 24h        1.9%       18.3%       10.1%
 45kt / 36h        7.5%       44.8%       26.1%
 55kt / 36h        4.8%       25.3%       15.1%
 55kt / 48h       10.7%       25.3%       18.0%
 70kt / 48h        3.4%       18.9%       11.1%
 65kt / 72h        3.9%       24.2%       14.0%