Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082020 200721 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.30    121.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     30.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.1  13.4  13.9  13.8  14.3  13.4  15.2  15.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  12.0  12.0  12.0  11.0  12.0  14.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 129.3 124.6 117.9 101.6  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0   6.0  19.0  25.0  19.0  12.0  33.0  -2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  66.0  67.0  68.0  71.0  70.0  67.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   4.0   5.0   3.0   2.0   0.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.2%        4.4%        3.3%
 25kt / 24h        8.4%       29.6%       19.0%
 30kt / 24h        5.1%       17.5%       11.3%
 35kt / 24h        3.1%       17.5%       10.3%
 40kt / 24h        3.1%       17.5%       10.3%
 45kt / 36h        9.8%       36.7%       23.3%
 55kt / 36h        5.7%       18.6%       12.1%
 55kt / 48h       12.0%       22.4%       17.2%
 70kt / 48h        4.0%       14.4%        9.2%
 65kt / 72h        5.4%       19.0%       12.2%