Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082020 200721 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.10    122.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     52.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     54.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.5  14.0  14.5  16.0  15.0  12.8  16.7  16.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0  12.0  12.0  11.0  10.0  15.0   8.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 112.0 107.3  94.4  72.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    10.0  25.0  39.0  37.0   1.0  25.0  33.0  11.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  67.0  69.0  70.0  70.0  68.0  63.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   4.0   2.0   4.0   0.0   3.0   4.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       26.5%       27.5%       27.0%
 25kt / 24h       46.0%       66.0%       56.0%
 30kt / 24h       46.0%       63.1%       54.6%
 35kt / 24h       46.0%       63.1%       54.6%
 40kt / 24h       46.0%       63.1%       54.6%
 45kt / 36h       30.0%       64.3%       47.1%
 55kt / 36h       20.4%       48.0%       34.2%
 55kt / 48h       18.9%       38.6%       28.8%
 70kt / 48h        5.8%       29.6%       17.7%
 65kt / 72h        2.1%       18.7%       10.4%