Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082020 200721 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.60    123.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.7  13.9  14.7  16.4  15.3  14.1  15.9  12.9  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  13.0  14.0  13.0  18.0  18.0   8.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 109.3 104.6  97.9  74.4  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    29.0  50.0  53.0  45.0  29.0  20.0  38.0  39.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  70.0  72.0  72.0  71.0  67.0  62.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   5.0  10.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       27.5%       25.1%       26.3%
 25kt / 24h       41.3%       61.9%       51.6%
 30kt / 24h       40.8%       61.6%       51.2%
 35kt / 24h       40.8%       61.6%       51.2%
 40kt / 24h       40.8%       61.6%       51.2%
 45kt / 36h       30.3%       53.8%       42.0%
 55kt / 36h       19.3%       36.2%       27.8%
 55kt / 48h       17.4%       31.8%       24.6%
 70kt / 48h        6.1%       21.0%       13.6%
 65kt / 72h        2.4%       12.1%        7.2%