Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082020 200721 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.20    124.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     59.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     70.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.3  15.6  17.0  15.2  13.3  12.8  15.3  13.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  14.0  13.0  12.0  25.0   8.0   4.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 109.3 107.0 102.3  85.5  63.0  58.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    42.0  40.0  31.0  43.0  45.0  17.0  57.0 -12.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  71.0  72.0  70.0  68.0  64.0  62.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   6.0   7.0   5.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.8%       11.6%       10.2%
 25kt / 24h       21.4%       43.6%       32.5%
 30kt / 24h       14.9%       37.1%       26.0%
 35kt / 24h       13.3%       37.1%       25.2%
 40kt / 24h       13.3%       37.1%       25.2%
 45kt / 36h       16.6%       35.2%       25.9%
 55kt / 36h        8.0%       18.7%       13.4%
 55kt / 48h       10.4%       20.6%       15.5%
 70kt / 48h        3.1%        9.8%        6.5%
 65kt / 72h        1.8%        6.9%        4.3%