Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082020 200722 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.20    126.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     76.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.9  14.7  15.2   9.7  12.6  14.7  13.4  15.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  13.0  11.0  13.0  12.0   8.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 109.3 109.3 104.6  95.7  69.3  51.7  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    58.0  31.0  38.0  56.0  42.0  63.0  37.0 -17.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  72.0  70.0  69.0  65.0  61.0  59.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   0.0   1.0   8.0   8.0   0.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.8%        9.6%        7.2%
 25kt / 24h       21.8%       46.1%       34.0%
 30kt / 24h       13.2%       40.0%       26.6%
 35kt / 24h        7.5%       40.0%       23.7%
 40kt / 24h        7.5%       38.2%       22.9%
 45kt / 36h       13.6%       34.4%       24.0%
 55kt / 36h        6.0%       18.2%       12.1%
 55kt / 48h       10.5%       18.3%       14.4%
 70kt / 48h        3.7%        8.7%        6.2%
 65kt / 72h        1.9%        5.4%        3.7%