Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082020 200722 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.90    127.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     58.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.6  13.1  10.7  13.8  15.1  13.5  14.5  13.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  12.0  15.0  24.0   9.0   4.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        109.3 107.0 104.6 102.3  87.4  60.0  54.4  54.4  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    53.0  50.0  61.0  55.0  34.0  39.0  -5.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  70.0  69.0  68.0  63.0  61.0  58.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   2.0   1.0   4.0   7.0   1.0  -2.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.3%        8.1%        6.7%
 25kt / 24h       18.2%       39.0%       28.6%
 30kt / 24h       11.9%       31.7%       21.8%
 35kt / 24h        8.1%       31.7%       19.9%
 40kt / 24h        8.1%       31.7%       19.9%
 45kt / 36h       12.9%       24.8%       18.9%
 55kt / 36h        5.9%       11.6%        8.8%
 55kt / 48h        9.4%       10.0%        9.7%
 70kt / 48h        4.2%        5.3%        4.7%
 65kt / 72h        1.3%        3.6%        2.5%