Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082020 200722 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.90    130.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     54.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     61.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.3  13.0  13.7  15.8  15.9  13.1  14.2  17.7  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  25.0  17.0   9.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         89.6  85.1  80.7  68.5  48.0  45.0  40.8  36.7  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    73.0  71.0  27.0  16.0  56.0  22.0  27.0  -4.0  N  N  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  68.0  65.0  63.0  61.0  58.0  55.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0   5.0  11.0   6.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       56.8%       34.4%       45.6%
 25kt / 24h       58.5%       58.2%       58.4%
 30kt / 24h       58.5%       58.2%       58.4%
 35kt / 24h       58.5%       58.2%       58.4%
 40kt / 24h       58.5%       58.2%       58.4%
 45kt / 36h       22.6%       28.8%       25.7%
 55kt / 36h       15.1%       16.8%       16.0%
 55kt / 48h        7.0%        5.8%        6.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%