Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082020 200723 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.30    131.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     60.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.7  13.2  15.3  16.0  12.0  11.4  15.4  18.5  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  16.0   9.0  12.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.1  73.6  63.5  52.7  43.0  38.6  33.0  33.0  N  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    76.0  37.0  18.0  25.0  54.0  18.0  35.0  12.0  N  N  U  U  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  66.0  65.0  63.0  63.0  59.0  53.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -4.0  -3.0   1.0   4.0   9.0   3.0   4.0  N  F  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       59.6%       35.9%       47.8%
 25kt / 24h       42.4%       47.8%       45.1%
 30kt / 24h       41.8%       47.8%       44.8%
 35kt / 24h       41.8%       47.8%       44.8%
 40kt / 24h       41.8%       47.8%       44.8%
 45kt / 36h       18.9%       24.3%       21.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%