Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082020 200723 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.30    135.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    30.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     56.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.5  15.1  13.9  11.5  10.4  13.4  17.6  24.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   8.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         31.6  21.0  16.1  14.6   8.6   3.0   4.4  10.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    10.0  34.0  49.0  18.0  33.0  27.0  16.0  11.0  U  N  N  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  63.0  63.0  64.0  62.0  55.0  52.0  46.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   3.0   1.0   0.0   1.0   5.0   7.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       24.0%        5.3%       14.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons