Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082020 200723 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80    136.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     53.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.8  13.4  12.0  11.2  10.8  14.5  20.8  24.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         22.7  17.7  16.1  13.0   5.8   1.7   7.2  14.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    39.0  60.0  35.0  32.0  32.0  19.0   7.0  19.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  64.0  65.0  63.0  57.0  51.0  47.0  42.0  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   4.0   1.0   1.0   3.0   4.0   3.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.4%        0.0%        2.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons