Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082020 200724 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.60    138.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     50.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.1  13.6  12.6  12.3  14.6  17.6  25.1  27.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]          6.1   4.6   1.5  -1.4  -7.0  -5.6   0.0  11.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    63.0  38.0  38.0  32.0   6.0  12.0  24.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  65.0  61.0  61.0  54.0  50.0  45.0  41.0  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   3.0   0.0   1.0   5.0   8.0   3.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons