Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082020 200724 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.30    139.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.4  11.8  14.7  14.9  15.8  21.3  25.8  29.1  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]          3.0   1.5  -1.4  -5.6  -8.3  -2.8   4.6  16.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0  39.0   9.0  11.0 -11.0  15.0   4.0  -4.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  60.0  61.0  58.0  54.0  49.0  43.0  42.0  N  N  N  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   3.0   1.0   2.0   9.0   5.0   8.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons