Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082020 200724 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.10    141.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     66.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.6  13.3  15.8  15.6  16.3  23.0  23.9  29.7  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   5.0  18.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         10.0   7.2   4.4   1.7   3.0  10.0  19.3  29.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    44.0  14.0   4.0   6.0   0.0  34.0  18.0  35.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  60.0  57.0  56.0  51.0  46.0  43.0  40.0  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   2.0   3.0   5.0   5.0   9.0   5.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons