Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082020 200725 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.70    147.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     50.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.5  17.6  19.5  23.9  27.1  32.7  32.4  29.8  F  F  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   7.0  12.0  14.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         16.7  19.4  22.2  26.5  36.0  44.8  48.5  50.5 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0  35.0  15.0  29.0  35.0   9.0  -3.0  10.0  U  N  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  48.0  46.0  42.0  38.0  38.0  37.0  39.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   8.0   5.0   6.0   1.0   3.0   0.0   2.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons