Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082020 200725 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.10    149.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     47.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.6  19.3  21.7  24.1  30.6  31.6  32.5  32.4  F  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  14.0   8.0  13.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         24.4  28.6  31.5  36.1  46.2  53.5  53.5  59.4 VU VU VU  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    26.0  26.0  26.0  26.0  36.0   5.0   1.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  47.0  42.0  42.0  39.0  38.0  38.0  40.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   5.0   6.0   4.0  -3.0   0.0   2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons