Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082020 200726 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.70    150.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     49.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.4  24.2  25.0  28.3  33.5  31.6  34.0  35.3  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   1.0   7.0  12.0  10.0  10.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         32.2  36.5  41.1  46.0  53.0  56.6  58.5  66.5 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    31.0  39.0  27.0  32.0   2.0   3.0   6.0  12.0  N  N  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  43.0  41.0  39.0  37.0  36.0  38.0  40.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   9.0   7.0  -2.0   0.0   7.0   1.0   2.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons