Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082020 200726 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.10    152.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     21.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     48.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.4  26.0  30.5  34.8  31.3  33.2  31.8  35.6  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   1.0   7.0  13.0   6.0  12.0  14.0  22.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         36.5  41.1  46.0  49.4  54.8  56.6  62.4  68.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    46.0  40.0  47.0  33.0  -1.0   6.0  -5.0  -9.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   42.0  41.0  38.0  37.0  36.0  35.0  37.0  38.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0   6.0  -5.0  -9.0   3.0  -2.0   0.0  -4.0  U  N  F  F  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        0.2%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons