Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082020 200726 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.50    153.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     26.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     48.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.5  30.5  34.8  33.4  29.8  30.4  29.7  31.8  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   8.0  13.0  12.0  12.0  11.0  24.0  19.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         41.1  47.7  51.2  56.6  56.6  58.5  66.5  68.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    34.0  42.0  31.0  22.0  23.0  10.0  43.0   6.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   41.0  38.0  38.0  36.0  36.0  35.0  35.0  34.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   0.0 -12.0  -6.0   9.0   0.0   4.0   1.0  N  N  F  F  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        0.4%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons