Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082020 200726 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.90    155.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     61.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.3  36.1  35.0  29.9  32.8  32.1  33.0  30.5  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0  12.0  10.0   5.0  14.0  19.0  23.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         51.0  56.2  59.8  61.6  63.5  69.4  73.6  75.7  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    51.0  33.0   7.0  33.0   9.0   5.0  -6.0  26.0  N  N  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   38.0  36.0  35.0  36.0  36.0  37.0  38.0  40.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -7.0  -9.0   4.0  -2.0   0.0   3.0   0.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        0.3%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons