Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082020 200727 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.60    156.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.0  35.9  30.3  31.3  34.3  33.0  31.6  31.4  U  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0   8.0   4.0  15.0  12.0  26.0  18.0  18.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         56.2  58.0  59.8  61.6  65.5  73.6  73.6  77.9  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    41.0  11.0  31.0  36.0  -2.0  32.0  20.0  28.0  N  U  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   36.0  36.0  36.0  35.0  38.0  38.0  39.0  43.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -3.0   4.0   7.0   1.0   2.0  -1.0   0.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        0.3%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons