Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082020 200727 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.30    158.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     67.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.6  30.3  31.1  34.2  34.5  33.3  28.5  30.4  U  N  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   4.0  15.0  11.0  24.0  19.0  14.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         53.0  54.8  56.6  56.6  66.5  68.6  70.7  75.1  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0  47.0  33.0  23.0  16.0   0.0  23.0  -3.0  U  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   34.0  35.0  35.0  36.0  39.0  39.0  41.0  45.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   8.0   7.0   2.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.0%        0.6%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        1.0%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        0.4%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.8%        0.4%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        0.3%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons