Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082020 200727 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.70    159.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     58.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.4  30.8  33.7  33.9  32.9  31.0  27.4  22.3  N  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0  15.0  11.0  14.0  26.0  18.0  17.0  15.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         54.8  56.6  58.5  60.5  68.6  68.6  72.9  72.9  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    36.0  20.0   9.0  11.0  15.0  24.0  17.0 -15.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   35.0  36.0  37.0  39.0  40.0  40.0  44.0  46.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  11.0   7.0   2.0   3.0   6.0   3.0   1.0   4.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.6%        0.8%        2.2%
 25kt / 24h        1.1%        1.1%        1.1%
 30kt / 24h        1.1%        0.4%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        1.1%        0.4%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        1.1%        0.3%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons