Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082020 200727 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.00    161.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     18.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     61.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.4  33.7  35.2  34.3  35.2  28.1  28.5  23.6  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  12.0  16.0  26.0  18.0  12.0  14.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         66.6  68.5  72.4  76.5  76.5  80.7  82.9  80.7  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    25.0  16.0  19.0  21.0   3.0  13.0  -2.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   36.0  37.0  39.0  40.0  41.0  43.0  45.0  49.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0  -1.0   3.0   4.0   1.0   3.0   0.0   5.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons