Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082020 200728 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.90    162.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     66.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.3  32.7  32.7  32.6  30.6  26.0  26.0  22.7  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  17.0  23.0  24.0  18.0  19.0  13.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.5  84.4  88.6  92.9  95.1  95.1  97.3  97.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    14.0  21.0  26.0  20.0  21.0  14.0  -7.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   37.0  38.0  40.0  40.0  41.0  44.0  48.0  51.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0  -1.0   2.0   5.0   2.0   5.0   3.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%