Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082020 200728 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.20    164.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     64.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.4  31.1  31.0  30.6  23.6  25.3  22.6  17.6  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  19.0  25.0  23.0  15.0  19.0  15.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         92.4  94.4 100.7 102.9 105.1 107.3 107.3 105.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0  16.0  13.0   0.0  17.0  14.0   2.0 -12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   37.0  37.0  37.0  38.0  41.0  46.0  52.0  49.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   6.0   5.0   3.0   4.0   0.0   5.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.5%        0.2%        0.4%