Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082020 200728 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.80    165.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     64.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.4  33.0  31.8  27.7  24.1  20.6  19.6  19.6  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  27.0  16.0  14.0  13.0  10.0  13.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        101.5 105.7 107.9 105.7 103.6 107.9 110.1 110.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    17.0  11.0   1.0   0.0  20.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   37.0  37.0  38.0  39.0  43.0  48.0  49.0  49.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   0.0   0.0   4.0   5.0   4.0  -6.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.6%        0.3%        0.4%