Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082020 200728 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.30    167.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     64.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.9  31.9  28.8  25.6  24.0  22.4  12.5  12.5  U  U  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  14.0  11.0   9.0  14.0   9.0   7.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.7 110.7 108.6 108.6 110.7 112.9 108.6 108.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    17.0  -2.0 -14.0  -5.0  -2.0  23.0  26.0  26.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   38.0  39.0  39.0  42.0  47.0  51.0  48.0  48.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   3.0   4.0   1.0   5.0  -4.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        1.3%        0.7%        1.0%