Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082020 200729 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.50    170.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     62.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.8  29.1  26.2  25.5  24.0  21.2  20.4  20.4  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  11.0   9.0  14.0  12.0  13.0   4.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.7 108.6 108.6 108.6 112.9 115.1 108.6 108.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     1.0   7.0   0.0   9.0   6.0   5.0  29.0  29.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   40.0  40.0  42.0  44.0  49.0  49.0  55.0  55.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   4.0   4.0   2.0   7.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.8%        0.8%        0.8%